0x00090E8b4FA8F88dc9C1740E460Dd0F670021D43-1758503238489
0x00090e8b4fa8f88dc9c1740e460dd0f670021d43
- Realised P&L
- $22.6k
- Volume
- $3.09M
- Markets traded
- 227
- Open portfolio
- $69.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded227
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.3kat 0.783Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$7.0kat 0.870Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$6.3kat 0.915Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$5.2kat 0.911Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$3.8kat 0.812Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 02:41 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL | 0.995 | $3.7k |
| 06-21 02:41 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.995 | $8.8k |
| 06-21 02:41 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.995 | $52.8k |
| 06-21 02:38 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $1.1k |
| 06-18 14:14 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $15.0k |
| 06-14 18:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | BUY | 0.6863943688 | $100.00 |
| 06-14 18:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET | BUY | 0.5336575975 | $41.58 |
| 06-14 18:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET | SELL | 0.5033151326 | $6.45 |
| 06-14 18:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET | BUY | 0.3899999774 | $5.00 |
| 06-06 12:01 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.847 | $916.52 |
| 06-02 10:45 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.773 | $948.54 |
| 06-02 10:44 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.921 | $184.29 |
| 06-01 16:33 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.982 | $1.3k |
| 05-31 00:51 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.81 | $2.2k |
| 05-31 00:51 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.904 | $279.21 |