PolyBot

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Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?

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Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2026-12-31
Resolves by
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Rewards
20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.47. up 0.07 over the period, from 0.40. Range 0.37 to 0.68. 22 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.77124124
0.7828152
0.8032184
0.88111295
0.89186482
0.926488
0.9393581
0.9510591
0.97183774
0.9816791
0.9965856

Spread0.69Mid0.42

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.081313
0.073245
0.0373118
0.02285403
0.01478881

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.921313
0.933245
0.9773118
0.98285403
0.99478881

Spread0.69Mid0.58

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.23124124
0.2228152
0.2032184
0.12111295
0.11186482
0.086488
0.0793581
0.0510591
0.03183774
0.0216791
0.0165856

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
0x9f5f61b693e1A457580Bb011DFe1e96e898C6fBD-1761964606250Yes186.42
estoiccYes121.95
AJSVYes44.21
title1No281.95
balabalababalabalaNo45.62
darkauroraNo25

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
14:36:51SELLNo0.4711$5.23
14:36:38SELLNo0.479$4.16
14:35:24BUYYes0.469$3.95
14:35:24SELLYes0.4632$14.72
11:47:02SELLYes0.4622772277101$46.69
11:41:33BUYNo0.2220$4.40
11:41:03BUYNo0.5240$20.80
11:40:42BUYNo0.3820$7.60
11:40:06BUYYes0.3883231707328$127.37
07:21:54SELLYes0.3378120$6.76
07:13:54BUYNo0.65142$92.27
06:36:00SELLYes0.0620$1.20
06:35:32BUYNo0.6140$24.40
06:07:48BUYYes0.4140$16.40
05:05:20BUYYes0.4099999969122$50.00