PolyBot

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Traders

darkaurora

0xa2a208e2d23389ad2baa0d58c7f4ddca39c8fae9

Realised P&L
$-1.5k
Volume
$53.8k
Markets traded
1,650
Open portfolio
$44.82

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,650
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration43.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No0.6800.650$19.50$0.90
Will Manchester United finish in the top 6 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season? · No0.3900.410$8.20+$0.40
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-07 House election by 10%-15%? · Yes0.3500.325$6.50$0.50
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-06 House election by 15%-20%? · Yes0.3100.265$5.09$0.86
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-17 House election by 10%-15%? · Yes0.2000.210$3.57+$0.17
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 35%-40%? · Yes0.0800.075$1.54$0.10
Will Keflavík be relegated from the 2026 Besta deild karla (Iceland)? · Yes0.0100.035$0.42+$0.30
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" in September? · No0.0400.000$0.00$0.80
Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 100.50 in September? · No0.1900.000$0.00$2.85
Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 99.50 in September? · No0.1300.000$0.00$2.60
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00$0.41
Will "Wildchild" - Alex Warren first week album sales be between 90k and 110k? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00$0.92
Will no Rogan episode air? · Yes0.0160.000$0.00$0.32
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00$5.00
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in September? · No0.1700.000$0.00$3.40

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-20 11:02OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?SELL0.3$6.00
09-20 10:27Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?SELL0.82$14.42
09-20 10:15Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on September 30, 2026?SELL0.728$14.56
09-20 09:38Will Kokand 1912 be relegated from the 2026 Uzbekistan Super League?SELL0.35$3.50
09-20 09:37Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop?SELL0.31$6.20
09-20 09:30Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.75-4.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?SELL0.08$0.80
09-20 09:03Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.58$11.60
09-20 08:21Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-14 House election by 35%-40%?SELL0.918$18.36
09-20 07:32Will Buffalo Bills finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?SELL0.3$7.52
09-20 07:01Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-01 House election by 0%-5%?SELL0.007$0.05
09-20 06:56Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-06 House election by 0%-30%?SELL0.02$0.40
09-20 06:41Will Robert Pattinson win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?SELL0.111$0.08
09-20 06:40Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?SELL0.62$0.81
09-20 06:37Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-08 House election by 25%-30%?SELL0.91$9.10
09-20 06:35Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-01 House election by 0%-5%?SELL0.008$0.06