darkaurora
0xa2a208e2d23389ad2baa0d58c7f4ddca39c8fae9
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $53.8k
- Markets traded
- 1,650
- Open portfolio
- $44.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,650
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.56at 0.565Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
- +$18.39at 0.521Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
- +$15.21at 0.636Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
- +$14.97at 0.569Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
- +$12.19at 0.614Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 11:02 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | SELL | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 09-20 10:27 | Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | SELL | 0.82 | $14.42 |
| 09-20 10:15 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.728 | $14.56 |
| 09-20 09:38 | Will Kokand 1912 be relegated from the 2026 Uzbekistan Super League? | SELL | 0.35 | $3.50 |
| 09-20 09:37 | Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop? | SELL | 0.31 | $6.20 |
| 09-20 09:30 | Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.75-4.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.80 |
| 09-20 09:03 | Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.58 | $11.60 |
| 09-20 08:21 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-14 House election by 35%-40%? | SELL | 0.918 | $18.36 |
| 09-20 07:32 | Will Buffalo Bills finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns? | SELL | 0.3 | $7.52 |
| 09-20 07:01 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-01 House election by 0%-5%? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.05 |
| 09-20 06:56 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-06 House election by 0%-30%? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.40 |
| 09-20 06:41 | Will Robert Pattinson win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.111 | $0.08 |
| 09-20 06:40 | Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31? | SELL | 0.62 | $0.81 |
| 09-20 06:37 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-08 House election by 25%-30%? | SELL | 0.91 | $9.10 |
| 09-20 06:35 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-01 House election by 0%-5%? | SELL | 0.008 | $0.06 |