estoicc
0x738a4849db23670996f14dff96a2bc6a8f885996
- Realised P&L
- $8.9k
- Volume
- $253.9k
- Markets traded
- 914
- Open portfolio
- $5.1k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded914
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.194Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?
- +$1.1kat 0.018Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
- +$859.56at 0.057Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?
- +$807.92at 0.122Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026?
- +$506.24at 0.257Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 21:25 | Israeli Knesset election annulled? | SELL | 0.9605006 | $384.20 |
| 10-30 08:20 | Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%? | BUY | 0.6 | $42.00 |
| 10-30 03:48 | Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999971 | $70.00 |
| 10-30 03:46 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 0%-3%? | BUY | 0.5797852098 | $105.00 |
| 10-30 03:38 | US imports Russian diesel by November 30? | BUY | 0.5432946894 | $62.00 |
| 10-30 03:07 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be between 500,000 and 550,000? | BUY | 0.419999999 | $44.00 |
| 10-30 02:59 | Will Babalwa Lobishe be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay? | BUY | 0.6439999986 | $74.00 |
| 10-29 05:43 | Will Yashar win 22-23 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.69 | $62.10 |
| 10-29 04:48 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 5,000,000 and 5,500,000? | BUY | 0.4599999999 | $68.00 |
| 10-29 04:45 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000? | BUY | 0.357999998 | $57.00 |
| 10-29 04:16 | Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2? | BUY | 0.64 | $65.00 |
| 10-29 04:14 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 900,000 and 975,000? | BUY | 0.5299999976 | $65.00 |
| 10-29 04:04 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M? | BUY | 0.5669761263 | $75.00 |
| 10-29 03:55 | Will Democrats win 9 or more of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.2999999985 | $40.00 |
| 10-29 03:42 | Will Cboe (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.3310526316 | $62.90 |