estoicc
0x738a4849db23670996f14dff96a2bc6a8f885996
- Realised P&L
- $9.8k
- Volume
- $224.5k
- Markets traded
- 790
- Open portfolio
- $9.7k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded790
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration7.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.194Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?
- +$1.1kat 0.018Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
- +$859.56at 0.057Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?
- +$807.92at 0.122Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026?
- +$506.24at 0.257Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 23:42 | Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? | BUY | 0.609375 | $97.50 |
| 09-16 18:02 | NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15? | SELL | 0.067726781 | $8.77 |
| 09-16 17:23 | Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? | SELL | 0.308669 | $21.61 |
| 09-16 06:11 | NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15? | BUY | 0.3476821177 | $45.00 |
| 09-16 06:05 | Will Fabio Roscioli win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election? | BUY | 0.2149345 | $85.97 |
| 09-16 05:21 | Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | SELL | 0.6692709091 | $147.24 |
| 09-16 05:20 | Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.4699999995 | $130.00 |
| 09-15 19:10 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6522841458 | $143.18 |
| 09-15 18:57 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $170.00 |
| 09-15 18:50 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.706 | $4.94 |
| 09-15 03:26 | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $49.48 |
| 09-15 02:53 | Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $110.00 |
| 09-14 05:11 | Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? | BUY | 0.2991579751 | $58.80 |
| 09-14 00:25 | Mega Gengar ex Price Over/Under $1,051.08 on September 30? | SELL | 0.966 | $201.46 |
| 09-14 00:24 | Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? | SELL | 0.9935323891 | $166.26 |