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Traders

estoicc

0x738a4849db23670996f14dff96a2bc6a8f885996

Realised P&L
$9.8k
Volume
$224.5k
Markets traded
790
Open portfolio
$9.7k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar4.4%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded790
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration7.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by September 30? · No0.3090.925$492.10+$327.50
Will $LAPTOP dip to $0.10 by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.3700.875$344.75+$198.97
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30? · No0.5630.895$278.17+$103.17
Will Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu win the Falealili 1 by-election? · No0.6900.900$273.91+$63.91
Will Henrik Fritzon be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne? · No0.4100.930$254.05+$142.05
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? · Yes0.5000.770$223.30+$78.30
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · No0.6350.855$213.75+$55.05
Will Mendonça Filho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election? · No0.5290.725$180.91+$48.91
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? · Yes0.6830.895$172.74+$40.90
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? · No0.3500.445$166.56+$35.56
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.5350.446$164.29$32.71
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? · No0.6091.000$159.92+$62.42
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $220B by September 30? · No0.6520.970$155.12+$50.72
Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes0.4700.560$154.89+$24.89
Will Jascha Rohr win the next Oldenburg mayoral election? · No0.3960.835$154.38+$81.17

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 23:42Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?BUY0.609375$97.50
09-16 18:02NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?SELL0.067726781$8.77
09-16 17:23Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?SELL0.308669$21.61
09-16 06:11NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?BUY0.3476821177$45.00
09-16 06:05Will Fabio Roscioli win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election?BUY0.2149345$85.97
09-16 05:21Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?SELL0.6692709091$147.24
09-16 05:20Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?BUY0.4699999995$130.00
09-15 19:10Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?SELL0.6522841458$143.18
09-15 18:57Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?BUY0.8$170.00
09-15 18:50Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?BUY0.706$4.94
09-15 03:26Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?BUY0.83$49.48
09-15 02:53Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?BUY0.5$110.00
09-14 05:11Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?BUY0.2991579751$58.80
09-14 00:25Mega Gengar ex Price Over/Under $1,051.08 on September 30?SELL0.966$201.46
09-14 00:24Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?SELL0.9935323891$166.26
Trader estoicc · PolyBot Pro