PolyBot

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Traders

estoicc

0x738a4849db23670996f14dff96a2bc6a8f885996

Realised P&L
$8.9k
Volume
$253.9k
Markets traded
914
Open portfolio
$5.1k

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded914
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration5.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? · Yes0.5000.786$228.09+$83.08
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by October 31? · No0.8500.959$191.80+$21.80
Will Cloud9 make a roster change by December? · Yes0.5330.865$175.59+$67.39
Will G2 Esports make a roster change by December? · Yes0.2730.625$166.88+$93.94
Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure? · No0.4270.695$166.80+$64.20
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? · No0.8831.000$158.53+$18.53
Will Víctor Robert De La Cruz Rosas win the next Trujillo mayoral elections? · No0.6300.876$158.51+$44.51
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December? · Yes0.4620.748$145.01+$55.36
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026? · No0.7600.720$144.00−$8.00
Will Sara Nylund be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västernorrland? · No0.2300.605$142.04+$88.04
NATO downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks? · Yes0.3800.510$119.85+$30.60
Will Dplus KIA make a roster change by December? · Yes0.4000.505$118.17+$24.57
Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? · No0.6300.555$114.20−$15.43
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30? · No0.6600.755$113.20+$14.24
Will Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) beat quarterly earnings? · No0.4460.700$112.00+$40.60

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-31 21:25Israeli Knesset election annulled?SELL0.9605006$384.20
10-30 08:20Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%?BUY0.6$42.00
10-30 03:48Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?BUY0.4599999971$70.00
10-30 03:46Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?BUY0.5797852098$105.00
10-30 03:38US imports Russian diesel by November 30?BUY0.5432946894$62.00
10-30 03:07Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be between 500,000 and 550,000?BUY0.419999999$44.00
10-30 02:59Will Babalwa Lobishe be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?BUY0.6439999986$74.00
10-29 05:43Will Yashar win 22-23 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?BUY0.69$62.10
10-29 04:48Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 5,000,000 and 5,500,000?BUY0.4599999999$68.00
10-29 04:45Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?BUY0.357999998$57.00
10-29 04:16Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?BUY0.64$65.00
10-29 04:14Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 900,000 and 975,000?BUY0.5299999976$65.00
10-29 04:04Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?BUY0.5669761263$75.00
10-29 03:55Will Democrats win 9 or more of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.2999999985$40.00
10-29 03:42Will Cboe (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.3310526316$62.90