Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $50 in 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
Rewards: 20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.48. down 0.02 over the period, from 0.50. Range 0.18 to 0.75. 101 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.67	10	10
0.72	142	152
0.73	26	178
0.74	80	258
0.91	18	276
0.92	25	301
0.93	27	328
0.94	92	420
0.97	11	431
0.99	22	453

Spread0.37Mid0.48

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.30	6	6
0.18	39	45
0.17	65	109
0.15	40	149
0.08	5	154
0.05	11	166
0.04	13	179
0.02	5	184
0.01	21	205

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.70	6	6
0.82	39	45
0.83	65	109
0.85	40	149
0.92	5	154
0.95	11	166
0.96	13	179
0.98	5	184
0.99	21	205

Spread0.37Mid0.52

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.33	10	10
0.28	142	152
0.27	26	178
0.26	80	258
0.09	18	276
0.08	25	301
0.07	27	328
0.06	92	420
0.03	11	431
0.01	22	453

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
AJSV	Yes	40.87
Flingflonger	Yes	20
Aggggaa12	No	35
Quantum777	No	20
0x7d88…eab3	No	5.87

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
07:12:44	BUY	Yes	0.299999983	6	$1.76
18:41:48	BUY	Yes	0.3	35	$10.50
09:55:03	SELL	No	0.27	1	$0.27
23:05:11	SELL	No	0.57	1	$0.57
08:42:51	BUY	No	0.6	19	$11.40
08:05:23	SELL	No	0.6	19	$11.40
09:53:09	BUY	No	0.69	20	$13.80
09:36:29	BUY	Yes	0.31	20	$6.20
20:14:50	BUY	No	0.48	20	$9.60