PolyBot

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Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in September 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-10-10
Resolves by
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.41. down 0.09 over the period, from 0.49. Range 0.22 to 0.52. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.76116116
0.7720136
0.795141
0.8445186
0.85107293
0.8640333
0.8745378
0.9510388
0.96100488
0.9766554
0.99160714

Spread0.71Mid0.41

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.053535
0.03133168
0.0112180

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.953535
0.97133168
0.9912180

Spread0.71Mid0.59

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.24116116
0.2320136
0.215141
0.1645186
0.15107293
0.1440333
0.1345378
0.0510388
0.04100488
0.0366554
0.01160714

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
AJSVYes22.2
russell110320No22.2

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
12:19:28BUYNo0.8922$19.76