PolyBot

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Will global temperature increase by between 1.45ºC and 1.49ºC in October 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-12-02
Resolves by
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Rewards
20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.45. down 0.05 over the period, from 0.50. Range 0.30 to 0.50. 143 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.738282
0.7480162
0.95124286
0.9630316
0.97295611
0.985191,130
0.999382,068

Spread0.57Mid0.45

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.162020
0.011131

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.842020
0.991131

Spread0.57Mid0.55

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.278282
0.2680162
0.05124286
0.0430316
0.03295611
0.025191,130
0.019382,068

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
AJSVYes41.6
pootytherewardfarmerNo21.6
karlson4675No20

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
17:40:13BUYYes0.342$12.48