TheTokl
0xffb3e20c41fed4f1a4d1502f8de287e1387f9ae4
- Realised P&L
- $-46.84
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $139.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.050 | 0.587 | $58.70 | +$53.70 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.878 | 0.945 | $48.45 | +$3.45 |
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? · No | 0.490 | 0.500 | $20.41 | +$0.41 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.035 | $7.25 | −$13.76 |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.040 | $2.22 | −$2.78 |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.291 | 0.051 | $1.74 | −$8.26 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.017 | $0.59 | −$4.41 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.33at 0.442Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$13.90at 0.590US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
- +$11.92at 0.303Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
- +$11.86at 0.558Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$10.83at 0.323Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 21:35 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9199999985 | $25.00 |
| 09-22 22:05 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999993 | $25.00 |
| 09-21 10:54 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25? | BUY | 0.0699999994 | $5.00 |
| 08-19 22:30 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999865 | $50.00 |
| 08-08 21:00 | Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.37399998 | $5.00 |
| 08-06 16:52 | Will Rodri join Barcelona? | BUY | 0.7922077883 | $40.00 |
| 08-06 16:48 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.5899999894 | $20.00 |
| 08-06 16:46 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 22:42 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | BUY | 0.0899999845 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 22:36 | Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2379999678 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 21:37 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6499999961 | $49.97 |
| 07-15 21:35 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5819999907 | $20.00 |
| 07-15 21:33 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.419 | $11.77 |
| 07-14 20:48 | France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.27 | $2.25 |
| 07-14 20:22 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9459999958 | $9.00 |