nonamebutmaybe
0xfe5c8d92a0e4f50dd1e7907e5b7b7403bae0fa87
- Realised P&L
- $-20.23
- Volume
- $972.08
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $13.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)67.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.425 | 0.380 | $3.80 | −$0.45 |
| Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government? · Yes | 0.963 | 0.606 | $3.03 | −$1.79 |
| Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government? · Yes | 0.928 | 0.580 | $2.90 | −$1.74 |
| Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.550 | $2.74 | −$1.95 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.095 | $1.43 | −$0.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.20at 0.101Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?
- +$1.34at 0.700Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.25at 0.706Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$0.66at 0.949Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by August 31, 2026?
- +$0.60at 0.629Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:12 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 19:11 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.50 |
| 10-30 12:59 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.10 |
| 10-21 16:46 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.20 |
| 10-17 13:07 | Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government? | BUY | 0.928 | $4.64 |
| 10-17 13:06 | Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government? | BUY | 0.963 | $4.81 |
| 10-17 13:06 | Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government? | BUY | 0.94 | $4.69 |
| 10-15 23:50 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 09-29 15:42 | Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco? | BUY | 0.9069999256 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 14:12 | Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco? | SELL | 0.52 | $0.66 |
| 09-28 14:10 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9349999579 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 02:32 | Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco? | BUY | 0.7829999577 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 23:02 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.941 | $4.71 |
| 09-25 22:56 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 22:56 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.932 | $1.06 |