PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0xFE5b32537Ef196Dc509D437B0C499554949485e1-1764371241640

0xfe5b32537ef196dc509d437b0c499554949485e1

Realised P&L
$-1.3k
Volume
$65.3k
Markets traded
50
Open portfolio
$934.40

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded50
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration44.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample24 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)45.8%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration76.5% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.2370.255$714.55+$49.55
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.5400.345$160.01$90.51
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? · Yes0.0650.021$31.56$68.44
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? · Yes0.0370.009$9.73$30.27
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0390.002$6.67$165.52
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? · Yes0.0200.004$5.22$24.78
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0310.006$4.22$15.78
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.1040.003$2.40$97.60
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00$20.00
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? · Yes0.1410.000$0.00$150.00
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? · Yes0.0260.000$0.00$5.00
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? · Yes0.1710.000$0.00$126.25
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? · Yes0.1500.000$0.00$30.00
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0780.000$0.00$40.00
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? · Yes0.0580.000$0.00$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-25 14:36Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.0387358505$172.19
04-26 21:27Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.1040950798$100.00
03-29 19:37Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.4311028875$200.00
03-29 18:25SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?SELL0.84$109.44
03-29 18:21SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?SELL0.85$110.74
03-26 00:43Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?BUY0.0179941519$20.00
03-26 00:41Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?BUY0.3159464021$30.00
03-26 00:40Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?BUY0.0359947101$30.00
03-25 20:28Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY0.3399999978$100.00
03-21 17:02SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?SELL0.82$50.11
03-20 02:33SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?SELL0.84$79.80
03-20 02:26SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?SELL0.84$116.66
03-08 12:09Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?BUY0.5199999938$20.00
03-08 12:09Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?BUY0.3184079602$10.00
03-08 12:05Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.0308200357$20.00