0xfe451c03ad216565c90633d981f77197735caee3
- Realised P&L
- $-5.51
- Volume
- $157.69
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $6.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)59.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.885 | $1.70 | +$0.70 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.600 | 0.895 | $1.49 | +$0.49 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.770 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? · No | 0.780 | 0.770 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · No | 0.260 | 0.255 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.100 | $0.20 | −$0.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.56at 0.430Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$3.13at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$2.40at 0.300Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?
- +$1.76at 0.710Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
- +$1.25at 0.590Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Michigan remarks?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 16:12 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 08:09 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 15? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 22:59 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 14:39 | Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 04:32 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 18:36 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 08:42 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 23:47 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 05:49 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 20:06 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 12:04 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 23:37 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 14:55 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 03:27 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 17:33 | Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.5019999699 | $1.00 |