Ricolou
0xfe24dc53a7e60f76b37c6fe6806f8b5617db8dd4
- Realised P&L
- $-27.65
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $5.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.305 | $1.45 | +$0.45 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.305 | $0.87 | −$0.13 |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.235 | $0.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.165 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.205 | $0.71 | −$0.29 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · No | 0.066 | 0.020 | $0.60 | −$1.39 |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.105 | $0.40 | −$0.60 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · No | 0.250 | 0.010 | $0.04 | −$0.96 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? · Yes | 0.375 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.61 |
| Cerebras IPO before 2027? · No | 0.077 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? · No | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.51at 0.285Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
- +$4.41at 0.251Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026?
- +$1.76at 0.340Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
- +$1.63at 0.550Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
- +$1.49at 0.556Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-18 09:58 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.036999963 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 16:01 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 15:54 | Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 15:54 | Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 15:54 | Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 15:39 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.3499998775 | $1.00 |
| 04-24 16:20 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.72 |
| 04-23 21:10 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.5679998773 | $0.96 |
| 04-12 16:41 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $1.00 |
| 04-11 05:07 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799998432 | $0.93 |
| 04-09 13:08 | JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 04-09 06:21 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499998775 | $0.94 |
| 04-08 04:56 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $0.92 |
| 04-06 21:29 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $0.89 |
| 04-04 02:20 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.1679998871 | $0.92 |