poopedpants
0xfe043129e9f9cd1c6d9e205c810f3cc1e8609a42
- Realised P&L
- $-840.64
- Volume
- $57.6k
- Markets traded
- 233
- Open portfolio
- $382.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded233
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$170.07at 0.256Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
- +$137.35at 0.120Will Solana dip to $70 in February?
- +$117.34at 0.821Taylor Swift engaged in 2024?
- +$88.00at 0.200Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July?
- +$80.00at 0.200Will Solana reach $200 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 12:04 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.008 | $2.40 |
| 09-16 12:04 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.008 | $7.20 |
| 09-16 12:01 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? | BUY | 0.098 | $0.98 |
| 09-16 11:58 | Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.061 | $1.83 |
| 09-16 11:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $5.50 |
| 09-16 11:55 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $8.00 |
| 06-16 14:54 | Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2146044301 | $18.88 |
| 06-16 14:53 | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0454610848 | $10.00 |
| 06-16 14:52 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0832766891 | $24.36 |
| 06-16 14:51 | Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0099619912 | $10.00 |
| 06-05 20:52 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88375 | $35.35 |
| 05-19 12:22 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999568 | $2.41 |
| 05-19 12:21 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |
| 05-19 12:20 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 05-19 12:16 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.5399999881 | $20.00 |