PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

poopedpants

0xfe043129e9f9cd1c6d9e205c810f3cc1e8609a42

Realised P&L
$-840.64
Volume
$57.6k
Markets traded
233
Open portfolio
$382.71

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded233
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration30.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · No0.5020.405$82.65$19.75
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.5350.405$70.86$22.76
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? · Yes0.4760.175$58.35$100.34
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.1360.162$25.76+$4.00
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0310.021$18.76$9.88
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3030.055$13.40$60.36
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.1370.105$10.31$3.16
US strike on Mexico by December 31? · Yes0.2920.075$9.48$27.45
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1300.025$9.16$39.44
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1400.049$7.07$13.37
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2000.175$7.00$1.00
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0120.015$6.46+$1.46
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6010.125$6.41$24.39
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.2400.155$6.20$3.40
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0350.020$5.69$4.27

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 12:04Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.008$2.40
09-16 12:04Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.008$7.20
09-16 12:01Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?BUY0.098$0.98
09-16 11:58Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?BUY0.061$1.83
09-16 11:56Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.11$5.50
09-16 11:55Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.2$8.00
06-16 14:54Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?BUY0.2146044301$18.88
06-16 14:53Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?BUY0.0454610848$10.00
06-16 14:52Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?BUY0.0832766891$24.36
06-16 14:51Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?BUY0.0099619912$10.00
06-05 20:52Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.88375$35.35
05-19 12:22Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1299999568$2.41
05-19 12:21Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.16$10.00
05-19 12:20Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.5$10.00
05-19 12:162026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBUY0.5399999881$20.00