CryptElt
0xfd5885c010d6ef3339eb027bd11d97c0ce989542
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $166.0k
- Markets traded
- 194
- Open portfolio
- $103.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded194
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.175 | $101.50 | +$8.70 |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.068 | $2.04 | −$20.76 |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? · No | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.50 |
| Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? · No | 0.544 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$58.00 |
| Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$444.94at 0.311Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
- +$280.98at 0.502US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
- +$202.54at 0.468US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
- +$202.10at 0.307Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?
- +$152.40at 0.420US military action against Iran before July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 16:03 | Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 14? | SELL | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 15:04 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.15 | $22.50 |
| 10-11 17:25 | Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15? | BUY | 0.76 | $22.80 |
| 03-09 11:52 | Iran leadership change by March 31? | BUY | 0.6699999993 | $100.00 |
| 01-23 23:20 | Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.4530297323 | $90.57 |
| 01-23 23:03 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | SELL | 0.4804714706 | $163.36 |
| 01-23 23:03 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.1743469779 | $229.40 |
| 01-18 22:24 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.113999997 | $30.00 |
| 01-18 22:18 | US strike on Mexico by December 31? | SELL | 0.22 | $68.03 |
| 01-18 22:18 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.113999997 | $30.00 |
| 01-18 22:17 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.1139999989 | $90.00 |
| 01-18 18:20 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | SELL | 0.3706197108 | $69.19 |
| 01-18 15:02 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | BUY | 0.3335874899 | $30.00 |
| 01-18 15:02 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | BUY | 0.3099999946 | $30.00 |
| 01-17 19:29 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.2040087533 | $145.90 |