ffrog
0xfd3d7eb51ccdb7f6c85630134c0f1be13db9c306
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $57.1k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $28.82
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.110 | $28.82 | −$57.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.38at 0.987Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?
- +$-0.00at 0.971Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$-0.05at 0.995Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025?
- +$-1.03at 0.440Grizzlies vs. Kings
- +$-19.80at 0.774Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-19 03:47 | Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | SELL | 0.7120015663 | $2.6k |
| 01-16 07:51 | Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | BUY | 0.729 | $2.6k |
| 01-16 01:58 | Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | SELL | 0.768 | $2.5k |
| 10-15 08:38 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? | BUY | 0.9869999774 | $28.52 |
| 03-17 09:23 | Grizzlies vs. Kings | BUY | 0.4399997779 | $1.03 |
| 03-17 08:50 | Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | SELL | 0.97 | $2.83 |
| 03-17 08:36 | Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | BUY | 0.970999999 | $2.84 |
| 12-19 04:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? | BUY | 0.4599999955 | $49.00 |
| 12-19 03:57 | Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? | SELL | 0.994 | $51.84 |
| 12-19 03:57 | Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? | BUY | 0.995 | $51.89 |