BelieveInSomething
0xfd0ee585bf699259f6a1671b4b1675d07f07a9c8
- Realised P&L
- $6.6k
- Volume
- $374.2k
- Markets traded
- 205
- Open portfolio
- $473.50
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded205
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.115 | $230.00 | −$350.00 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.460 | 0.595 | $178.50 | +$40.50 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.065 | $65.00 | −$165.00 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? · No | 0.046 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$38.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.810Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?
- +$1.4kat 0.691Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season?
- +$1.1kat 0.080Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?
- +$849.71at 0.824Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?
- +$846.82at 0.826Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 18:31 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | SELL | 0.87 | $956.99 |
| 07-27 18:31 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.269 | $107.60 |
| 07-18 21:26 | President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? | BUY | 0.0461070145 | $36.82 |
| 07-18 21:13 | President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? | BUY | 0.043 | $1.93 |
| 06-25 10:37 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | BUY | 0.4263675875 | $272.72 |
| 06-12 16:15 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1680094308 | $100.00 |
| 06-12 15:20 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL | 0.87 | $174.00 |
| 06-06 19:54 | Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? | SELL | 0.0333207725 | $2.12 |
| 06-01 16:00 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.8238365676 | $786.67 |
| 06-01 12:06 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6598961449 | $400.00 |
| 06-01 12:05 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4999457859 | $500.00 |
| 05-26 09:38 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.816 | $3.5k |
| 05-25 20:32 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.8109999998 | $3.5k |
| 05-22 14:23 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.3913704137 | $321.28 |
| 05-20 20:47 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | BUY | 0.9781211328 | $403.74 |