0xfd0a48d7f4867446a5165aeab35c42f8b529dbf0
- Realised P&L
- $-10.67
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $20.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BIP-360 implemented in 2026? · No | 0.913 | 0.741 | $11.20 | −$2.60 |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.985 | $2.95 | +$0.16 |
| Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.977 | $2.93 | +$0.11 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.935 | $2.81 | +$0.47 |
| Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.045 | $0.71 | −$0.49 |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.065 | $0.33 | −$0.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.41at 0.462FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026?
- +$6.07at 0.900Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
- +$5.60at 0.720Will there be 13 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
- +$3.29at 0.923U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?
- +$1.71at 0.910Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 13:07 | Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.69 |
| 08-13 13:07 | Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $11.31 |
| 07-28 13:36 | Will Trump resign before 2027? | SELL | 0.038 | $1.48 |
| 07-27 18:53 | Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.963 | $35.63 |
| 07-14 16:55 | Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%? | SELL | 0.75 | $15.00 |
| 07-01 13:18 | Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $35.15 |
| 07-01 13:18 | Will Trump resign before 2027? | BUY | 0.0280000008 | $1.11 |
| 06-07 04:55 | Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $11.18 |
| 06-07 04:55 | Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.56 |
| 05-13 03:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.40 |
| 05-13 03:23 | Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $54.60 |
| 05-10 11:21 | Bitcoin BIP-360 implemented in 2026? | BUY | 0.9133812885 | $13.80 |
| 05-10 11:21 | Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026? | BUY | 0.0765916707 | $1.20 |
| 05-05 10:10 | Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? | SELL | 0.98 | $10.78 |
| 05-01 06:32 | FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026? | BUY | 0.4498688312 | $34.64 |