das21
0xfd06d221eae88def8984d4c201d601ba431364e0
- Realised P&L
- $156.74
- Volume
- $1.63M
- Markets traded
- 122
- Open portfolio
- $6.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded122
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gemini Argon be released on October 12, 2026? · No | 0.978 | 0.944 | $5.15 | −$0.19 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · No | 0.840 | 0.982 | $1.78 | +$0.26 |
| Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.00 |
| Twins vs. Rangers · Rangers | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$56.00 |
| Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.00 |
| Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Marlins vs. Phillies · Phillies | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$68.00 |
| Mets vs. Cubs · Cubs | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.00 |
| Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.00 |
| Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks · Dodgers | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.00 |
| Royals vs. Angels · Angels | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Red Sox vs. Blue Jays · Blue Jays | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| Pirates vs. Reds · Reds | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$61.00 |
| Cardinals vs. Giants · Giants | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$400.20at 0.995Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$137.94at 0.996Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
- +$78.57at 0.964Will USD.AI launch a token in 2025?
- +$50.00at 0.500Brewers vs. Padres
- +$49.33at 0.920Will Bayern Munich advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 16:07 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on October 9? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.96 |
| 10-08 16:06 | Will Gemini Argon be released on October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.9779999963 | $5.34 |
| 06-13 16:07 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.872 | $47.96 |
| 06-13 16:07 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.873 | $90.57 |
| 06-13 16:07 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.874 | $38.81 |
| 06-13 16:07 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.881 | $147.95 |
| 06-13 01:30 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.842 | $567.15 |
| 06-13 01:30 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.843 | $168.60 |
| 06-13 01:24 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.135 | $135.10 |
| 06-13 01:24 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.136 | $22.10 |
| 06-13 01:23 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.137 | $39.91 |
| 06-04 13:04 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9939999887 | $70.00 |
| 12-18 19:54 | Kraken IPO in 2025? | SELL | 0.992 | $1.5k |
| 12-10 13:16 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.996 | $127.8k |
| 11-16 17:28 | Will USD.AI launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.9638586783 | $2.6k |