Penthyn
0xfcea3d890ade9b0e351e8e7235444c724ef218cb
- Realised P&L
- $-282.98
- Volume
- $139.0k
- Markets traded
- 3,129
- Open portfolio
- $15.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,129
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration37.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$185.30at 0.022Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on December 28?
- +$180.49at 0.013Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?
- +$127.10at 0.193Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on January 10?
- +$96.60at 0.034Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 14?
- +$66.90at 0.141Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 12:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET | BUY | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 10-08 12:49 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 10-08 11:40 | Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.029 | $3.37 |
| 10-08 11:39 | Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.021 | $2.25 |
| 10-08 10:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 07-23 09:25 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 23? | BUY | 0.3304882689 | $5.21 |
| 07-23 09:25 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 23? | BUY | 0.3255555556 | $5.86 |
| 07-21 11:17 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or below on July 21? | BUY | 0.95 | $7.66 |
| 07-21 10:48 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.043 | $8.60 |
| 07-21 09:58 | Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on July 21? | BUY | 0.0098765432 | $1.00 |
| 07-21 09:58 | Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 21? | BUY | 0.0469999569 | $1.00 |
| 07-21 09:58 | Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on July 21? | BUY | 0.0177408654 | $1.00 |
| 07-21 06:56 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 21? | BUY | 0.16 | $7.11 |
| 07-21 06:52 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 21? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.68 |
| 07-17 15:27 | Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 17? | SELL | 0.0016403367 | $0.28 |