0xfcb90949de4fb094b3cdccb287516755a31749de
0xfcb90949de4fb094b3cdccb287516755a31749de
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $29.6k
- Markets traded
- 212
- Open portfolio
- $158.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded212
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes | 0.720 | 1.000 | $69.44 | +$19.44 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.623 | 0.439 | $35.19 | −$14.81 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.239 | 0.155 | $19.46 | −$10.54 |
| Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? · Yes | 0.433 | 0.194 | $17.92 | −$22.08 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.122 | $12.25 | −$7.75 |
| Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? · Yes | 0.449 | 0.084 | $3.74 | −$16.26 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$14.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$160.33at 0.158Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$139.20at 0.276Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?
- +$88.74at 0.543Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?
- +$85.93at 0.381Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
- +$82.07at 0.280Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 19:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET | BUY | 0.8399999993 | $50.00 |
| 10-27 19:26 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7199999942 | $50.00 |
| 10-27 18:35 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9369999641 | $20.00 |
| 10-27 18:35 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.6229999987 | $50.00 |
| 10-27 18:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | BUY | 0.8899999996 | $20.00 |
| 10-27 14:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET | BUY | 0.7099999918 | $20.00 |
| 10-23 19:05 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-26? | BUY | 0.4499999964 | $50.00 |
| 10-20 16:10 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-10-20? | BUY | 0.6799999981 | $100.00 |
| 10-20 16:09 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-10-20? | BUY | 0.6799999981 | $100.00 |
| 10-09 19:17 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-10-10? | BUY | 0.579999997 | $50.00 |
| 09-19 06:40 | Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $7.05 |
| 09-18 18:03 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.839999999 | $100.00 |
| 09-10 16:12 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-09-10? | BUY | 0.25 | $100.00 |
| 09-10 16:12 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-09-10? | BUY | 0.25 | $100.00 |
| 09-09 19:06 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-09-09? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |