0xfc492103a4b642b976c5bcefaa9aa8bb96c16dca
- Realised P&L
- $868.84
- Volume
- $5.0k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar17.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration89.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.670 | $891.17 | +$345.53 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.967 | $779.40 | +$61.69 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.249 | $32.39 | +$22.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$540.10at 0.580Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$37.55at 0.730Will United States win on 2026-07-01?
- +$24.32at 0.522Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
- +$-10.30at 0.166Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-10.33at 0.063Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 06:16 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.89 | $717.71 |
| 07-15 22:04 | Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | BUY | 0.4099999996 | $533.21 |
| 07-15 22:03 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5809999998 | $717.15 |
| 07-09 13:51 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.025 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 13:50 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1929999863 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 13:50 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1609999871 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 13:50 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0609999944 | $10.00 |
| 07-02 23:50 | Portugal vs. Croatia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | BUY | 0.2099999984 | $100.00 |
| 07-02 01:42 | Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.7199999986 | $100.00 |
| 06-30 16:44 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | BUY | 0.4463004793 | $35.95 |
| 06-30 16:36 | Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | BUY | 0.4199999818 | $12.43 |
| 06-30 03:49 | Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3099999922 | $16.72 |
| 06-21 06:12 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.0768783054 | $10.00 |
| 06-20 06:04 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | BUY | 0.5099999951 | $25.98 |