invest206
0xfc48c8f32bad4d671160d6f1b517d5940f5e05f5
- Realised P&L
- $-141.75
- Volume
- $11.4k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $656.06
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$57.65at 0.248US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$19.55at 0.204Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?
- +$5.51at 0.863Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- +$2.81at 0.640Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
- +$2.78at 0.742Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 11:49 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.938999953 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 11:49 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.9669999996 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 11:47 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.879999831 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 11:44 | Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11? | BUY | 0.8859999933 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 11:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.9399999962 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 11:19 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9669999996 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 11:15 | Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | BUY | 0.1586737449 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 11:15 | Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | BUY | 0.345999956 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 11:09 | Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? | BUY | 0.8399999395 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 11:04 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 11:01 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4399999648 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 07:38 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7419999757 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 04:53 | Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | SELL | 0.905 | $17.47 |
| 07-23 10:34 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.849999983 | $5.00 |
| 07-23 10:29 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.782999971 | $5.00 |