p1kachu
0xfc10258b3ff4fb9b7dfdb8fdbc08438475e989c3
- Realised P&L
- $-393.87
- Volume
- $14.7k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $8.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.627 | 0.555 | $2.9k | −$379.70 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.679 | 0.875 | $2.6k | +$577.19 |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.524 | 0.725 | $2.5k | +$692.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$71.70at 0.786Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
- +$-42.13at 0.950Will Bullish (BLSH) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$-423.44at 0.563Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 14:58 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6099999999 | $2.3k |
| 10-04 14:57 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7194497108 | $800.00 |
| 09-24 17:28 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6699999999 | $1.0k |
| 08-23 05:55 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? | BUY | 0.7465559879 | $250.00 |
| 08-23 05:53 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | SELL | 0.2518525339 | $322.48 |
| 08-13 01:23 | Will Bullish (BLSH) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.242716413 | $14.83 |
| 08-11 16:38 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | BUY | 0.5506881516 | $705.12 |
| 08-11 16:19 | Will Bullish (BLSH) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.9472369097 | $100.00 |
| 08-11 16:08 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6790344712 | $2.0k |
| 08-11 16:07 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4299999998 | $1000.00 |