MS91
0xfc0a18473915928784716ad62f32c4fa8cd28c9a
- Realised P&L
- $75.08
- Volume
- $9.5k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $84.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.022 | $19.96 | −$20.03 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.506 | 0.595 | $17.63 | +$2.63 |
| Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.455 | $15.96 | −$4.04 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.060 | $12.00 | −$1.80 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.033 | $8.33 | −$1.67 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.275 | 0.160 | $5.80 | −$4.20 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.179 | 0.075 | $5.05 | −$6.95 |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$57.68at 0.656Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$22.16at 0.311Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
- +$19.67at 0.472Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$18.30at 0.300US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$15.00at 0.250Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 07:17 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.062 | $28.38 |
| 07-03 07:17 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.155 | $17.77 |
| 07-03 07:17 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.248 | $19.13 |
| 07-03 07:17 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.26 | $58.06 |
| 06-30 19:12 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.024 | $40.43 |
| 06-22 08:27 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.4399999648 | $5.00 |
| 06-22 08:27 | Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.4099999836 | $5.00 |
| 06-20 15:49 | Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2399999674 | $5.00 |
| 06-20 15:47 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0719999871 | $5.00 |
| 06-14 04:36 | Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.013 | $9.29 |
| 06-12 07:12 | Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.529999965 | $5.00 |
| 06-11 16:09 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0439999958 | $10.00 |
| 06-11 16:08 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0239999977 | $10.00 |
| 06-10 08:52 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | BUY | 0.529999965 | $5.00 |
| 06-10 08:51 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0443913502 | $10.00 |