mxc3ua20pkio
0xfb9caa0dba4ba6cb15a928e37e6bc56d19e7383e
- Realised P&L
- $71.76
- Volume
- $53.3k
- Markets traded
- 930
- Open portfolio
- $439.72
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded930
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration77.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.928 | 0.968 | $250.17 | +$10.17 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.956 | $92.52 | +$2.52 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.929 | 0.964 | $62.23 | +$2.23 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.967 | $20.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.974 | $10.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.348 | 0.935 | $2.50 | +$1.57 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on September 23? · Yes | 0.143 | 0.200 | $1.53 | +$0.43 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.032 | $0.49 | −$0.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.77at 0.011Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
- +$42.21at 0.372Hornets vs. Magic
- +$38.43at 0.284Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
- +$27.05at 0.047Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 27?
- +$19.77at 0.004Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 09:36 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.1434782546 | $1.10 |
| 09-09 17:50 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 10? | BUY | 0.28 | $3.29 |
| 09-06 22:08 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 7? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.19 |
| 09-06 07:04 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on September 7? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.26 |
| 09-05 20:04 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on September 5? | SELL | 0.22 | $0.26 |
| 09-05 19:18 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on September 5? | SELL | 0.48 | $0.12 |
| 09-05 19:18 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on September 5? | SELL | 0.48 | $0.08 |
| 09-05 19:17 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on September 5? | SELL | 0.47 | $0.24 |
| 09-05 18:33 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on September 5? | BUY | 0.4899999433 | $1.21 |
| 09-05 10:35 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on September 5? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.21 |
| 09-05 08:00 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on September 5? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.08 |
| 09-01 14:23 | Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $10.00 |
| 09-01 12:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $10.00 |
| 09-01 11:46 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $10.00 |
| 09-01 11:45 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $10.00 |