0xfb8937f3e17075cb98bba9fd172dabed71c451cf
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 230
- Open portfolio
- $4.35
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded230
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 88% to 90%? · No | 0.759 | 0.785 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.425 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? · No | 0.210 | 0.175 | $0.83 | −$0.17 |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026? · No | 0.741 | 0.547 | $0.74 | −$0.26 |
| Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.540 | $0.70 | −$0.30 |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.009 | $0.03 | −$0.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.96at 0.625Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?
- +$16.31at 0.327Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5
- +$7.15at 0.306Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5
- +$5.22at 0.377Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5
- +$4.06at 0.437Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 14:54 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.7409998162 | $1.00 |
| 11-02 06:54 | Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 22:53 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 14:24 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 05:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-31 16:15 | Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 88% to 90%? | BUY | 0.7589994566 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 01:25 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 03:08 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 02:53 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 18:36 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 10:36 | Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 14:34 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 06:21 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 06:17 | Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.4219998658 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 06:16 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3649998704 | $1.00 |