Ogbournet
0xfb66a5755f4a68e9df583d6576c8974ca0551201
- Realised P&L
- $20.95
- Volume
- $11.6k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $6.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.090 | $6.69 | −$32.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.33at 0.043Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
- +$5.10at 0.080Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?
- +$1.75at 0.963Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
- +$0.46at 0.944Iran Nuke before 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.080Russia coup attempt in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 08:38 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? | SELL | 0.045 | $21.15 |
| 07-22 06:53 | UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? | SELL | 0.947 | $130.47 |
| 07-22 06:51 | UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? | SELL | 0.952 | $249.42 |
| 07-22 05:55 | UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? | BUY | 0.9520862719 | $434.15 |
| 07-22 05:38 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SELL | 0.945 | $436.59 |
| 07-22 05:12 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BUY | 0.944 | $436.13 |
| 07-10 07:45 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.957 | $403.85 |
| 07-10 07:04 | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $420.36 |
| 06-29 08:08 | Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.936 | $421.20 |
| 06-29 07:34 | Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.967 | $422.58 |
| 06-29 06:58 | Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.963 | $420.83 |
| 06-18 09:24 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | SELL | 0.071 | $47.37 |
| 06-18 08:59 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | BUY | 0.039 | $2.38 |
| 06-18 08:54 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | SELL | 0.044 | $1.41 |
| 06-18 08:52 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | BUY | 0.0449139091 | $14.82 |