Lumberjack
0xfb5dbc0a758b276e1cc300dcb26dca35dbb3be63
- Realised P&L
- $627.35
- Volume
- $71.5k
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $24.95
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$812.14at 0.068Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November?
- +$602.04at 0.153Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$311.65at 0.183Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?
- +$297.50at 0.074Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
- +$180.29at 0.039Will the government shutdown end November 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 12:21 | Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $16.19 |
| 10-19 22:32 | Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0286718522 | $13.34 |
| 10-19 20:29 | Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0201947911 | $18.04 |
| 10-12 19:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.027 | $30.92 |
| 10-08 09:51 | Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3625034385 | $195.03 |
| 10-08 09:14 | Will Pump.fun reach $0.0080 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4482470448 | $97.83 |
| 04-19 09:33 | OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.27 | $11.25 |
| 02-27 08:34 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999946 | $10.00 |
| 02-27 08:33 | Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999899 | $10.00 |
| 02-27 08:23 | Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999939 | $10.00 |
| 02-27 08:23 | Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999913 | $10.00 |
| 02-27 08:22 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.00 |
| 02-25 23:20 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.00 |
| 02-17 17:08 | Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $11.62 |
| 02-14 15:18 | Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999951 | $22.26 |