MuchAdo2BRN2B
0xfad4fb17d54b6d600d6cc912d433e73c252ca210
- Realised P&L
- $-7.4k
- Volume
- $1.12M
- Markets traded
- 923
- Open portfolio
- $9.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded923
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.4kat 0.620Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?
- +$2.7kat 0.417Rabois Parlay: Trump wins PA, MI, GA and AZ?
- +$2.1kat 0.227Trump wins every swing state?
- +$1.8kat 0.454Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?
- +$1.8kat 0.532Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:24 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.4k |
| 10-31 15:49 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $144.00 |
| 10-31 15:48 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.49 | $96.53 |
| 10-31 15:47 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $40.50 |
| 10-31 07:51 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $175.24 |
| 10-31 07:49 | Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.26 | $4.92 |
| 10-31 07:47 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.7099999996 | $1000.00 |
| 10-31 07:36 | Will an Independent candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 3% or more? | BUY | 0.22 | $9.85 |
| 10-31 07:25 | Will Democrats win the Iowa and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska? | BUY | 0.2 | $4.02 |
| 10-31 07:25 | Will Democrats win the Iowa and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.37 |
| 10-31 07:23 | Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $30.00 |
| 10-29 21:57 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.68 | $679.99 |
| 10-29 14:37 | Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? | BUY | 0.58 | $11.37 |
| 10-29 14:34 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.7k |
| 10-29 07:04 | Will Republicans win the Mississippi Senate seat, Democrats win South Carolina, and an independent win Montana? | BUY | 0.027 | $2.40 |