0xfa5df50500044852e19fb9b898e48eebd59e04a6
- Realised P&L
- $-27.82
- Volume
- $426.27
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $22.33
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.100 | $12.89 | −$18.11 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.203 | 0.221 | $3.26 | +$0.26 |
| Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.055 | $2.75 | −$1.25 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.105 | $1.51 | −$0.49 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.145 | $1.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.077 | $0.92 | −$1.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.80at 0.738US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?
- +$-3.13at 0.030Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
- +$-5.01at 0.056Iran leadership change by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-01 15:18 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2029999345 | $2.00 |
| 07-01 15:18 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2029998536 | $1.00 |
| 06-03 06:45 | Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.2590833385 | $21.00 |
| 06-03 06:39 | Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.2090800331 | $10.00 |
| 06-03 06:36 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.2899999275 | $2.00 |
| 05-21 02:22 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY | 0.0289999909 | $3.00 |
| 05-21 01:58 | Iran leadership change by May 31? | BUY | 0.0409999622 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 01:57 | Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 05-20 10:03 | Iran leadership change by May 31? | BUY | 0.0636363347 | $2.00 |
| 05-20 10:01 | Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.00 |
| 05-19 06:06 | Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 05-18 12:56 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1399999426 | $2.00 |
| 05-18 12:56 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1669999431 | $2.00 |
| 05-18 05:46 | US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? | BUY | 0.7299999679 | $5.00 |
| 05-17 15:06 | Iran leadership change by May 31? | BUY | 0.0599999724 | $2.00 |