AmandaMoore2890
0xfa3f9b9ab59fbaaabc73f7c95b5198289d4f6e13
- Realised P&L
- $1.0k
- Volume
- $140.8k
- Markets traded
- 140
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded140
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic | 0.562 | 0.942 | $1.3k | +$530.14 |
| Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? · No | 0.710 | 1.000 | $2.00 | +$0.58 |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? · No | 0.770 | 0.875 | $0.88 | +$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$372.18at 0.111Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?
- +$372.06at 0.210Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
- +$348.05at 0.590Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?
- +$294.84at 0.460Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5
- +$282.00at 0.500XRP Up or Down - February 16, 6AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 07:54 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.66 | $590.04 |
| 04-23 10:06 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $607.92 |
| 04-13 10:19 | Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $330.48 |
| 04-13 10:12 | Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $533.52 |
| 04-13 08:19 | Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30? | BUY | 0.77 | $142.45 |
| 04-13 07:20 | Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $312.12 |
| 04-13 06:46 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins | BUY | 0.49 | $340.55 |
| 04-13 06:11 | Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $629.85 |
| 04-11 23:46 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | SELL | 0.71 | $237.14 |
| 04-11 07:32 | Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.777 | $355.87 |
| 04-11 07:31 | Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.777 | $574.20 |
| 04-11 07:30 | Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.777 | $44.29 |
| 04-11 01:26 | Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.798 | $1.0k |
| 04-09 23:17 | Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? | SELL | 0.791 | $817.10 |
| 04-07 09:10 | Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? | BUY | 0.868 | $896.64 |