i2ra4
0xfa28cc0e2f8e9e7b223f931a5fc57e0ae9d7bf30
- Realised P&L
- $42.46
- Volume
- $21.2k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $4.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.984 | $1.6k | +$38.30 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.961 | $1.1k | +$55.50 |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.980 | $979.50 | +$19.50 |
| Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.993 | $461.39 | +$24.63 |
| Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.993 | $297.75 | +$12.75 |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.958 | 0.979 | $244.75 | +$5.25 |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.735 | $147.00 | −$35.00 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.420 | 0.235 | $35.25 | −$27.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.19at 0.944Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$10.71at 0.081Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$10.48at 0.169Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$8.29at 0.834Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5
- +$7.32at 0.932Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 19:45 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.42 | $63.00 |
| 08-02 19:43 | Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $248.76 |
| 08-02 19:34 | Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.975 | $360.75 |
| 08-02 19:34 | Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $285.00 |
| 08-02 19:30 | Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $188.00 |
| 08-02 19:30 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $182.00 |
| 07-01 11:38 | Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.958 | $239.50 |
| 06-30 15:07 | Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $960.00 |
| 06-30 15:03 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.972 | $291.60 |
| 06-30 15:03 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.98 | $294.00 |
| 06-30 15:03 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.972 | $97.20 |
| 06-30 15:02 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.962 | $19.24 |
| 06-30 15:02 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.28 | $28.00 |
| 06-30 15:02 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.193 | $19.30 |
| 06-30 15:01 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.113 | $11.30 |