spetzle
0xfa1cb73c33dac57223c1f92a085a0975c5758663
- Realised P&L
- $94.96
- Volume
- $2.3k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $212.60
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Melania Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027? · No | 0.951 | 0.948 | $126.58 | −$0.45 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027? · No | 0.920 | 0.915 | $64.05 | −$0.35 |
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.900 | $13.50 | +$4.35 |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? · No | 0.650 | 0.565 | $8.47 | −$1.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.00at 0.845Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$21.35at 0.790Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$18.88at 0.685France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
- +$14.24at 0.810Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$6.90at 0.803Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 08:31 | Will Melania Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027? | BUY | 0.952 | $50.00 |
| 10-27 08:25 | Will Melania Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027? | BUY | 0.951 | $77.03 |
| 10-27 08:23 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $64.40 |
| 06-21 09:19 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $3.28 |
| 05-24 15:37 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | BUY | 0.65 | $3.25 |
| 05-24 15:36 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $46.00 |
| 05-24 15:34 | Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $9.15 |
| 05-24 15:32 | Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $2.58 |
| 05-24 15:21 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $31.97 |
| 04-13 07:16 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.9 | $45.00 |
| 04-13 07:14 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.988 | $79.04 |
| 04-12 11:31 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.81 | $64.80 |
| 04-10 09:39 | Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $36.40 |
| 04-09 19:48 | Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $37.20 |
| 04-01 20:09 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $22.20 |