lisan-al-gaib93
0xfa04eb177f727ec9841caf67055471cf068d7818
- Realised P&L
- $25.00
- Volume
- $999.19
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $435.08
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.770 | $166.66 | +$69.26 |
| Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.675 | $73.97 | −$6.03 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.860 | $69.84 | +$20.30 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? · No | 0.333 | 0.245 | $42.66 | −$15.37 |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.175 | $42.29 | −$15.71 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.775 | $39.65 | −$4.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.00at 0.800Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 22:51 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY | 0.3332832193 | $58.03 |
| 09-26 22:51 | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | BUY | 0.2399999997 | $58.00 |
| 09-21 13:27 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.8599999949 | $44.00 |
| 09-21 13:25 | Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.7299999982 | $80.00 |
| 09-20 01:59 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8 | $100.00 |
| 09-14 19:44 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999982 | $49.54 |
| 09-14 19:37 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999988 | $97.40 |