PolyBot

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Traders

extractive-manatee

0xf9f207b77137caa79c6c4516abdef3133db45cba

Realised P&L
$75.2k
Volume
$18.17M
Markets traded
4,386
Open portfolio
$90.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded4,386
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration30.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · No0.8470.974$6.9k+$892.68
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30? · No0.4750.695$3.2k+$997.31
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.8600.973$2.9k+$337.50
Will Washington have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? · U 8.50.6490.725$2.0k+$212.31
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30? · No0.6180.986$1.9k+$726.48
Will Germany win 2026-27 Nations League Group A2? · No0.3920.505$1.8k+$399.44
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0110.033$1.6k+$1.1k
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.2940.162$1.3k$1.1k
Will TreVeyon Henderson have 6.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · No0.5550.560$1.1k+$9.29
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? · Yes0.7870.710$1.1k$114.42
Will Indiana have more than 9.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? · Yes0.6750.725$896.09+$61.40
Will Sam Darnold have 3,449.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · No0.3990.450$805.41+$91.18
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0110.011$768.17$21.93
Will Duke have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? · O 5.50.5800.800$767.45+$211.35
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League? · No0.5000.505$757.50+$7.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 01:33Will Nico Collins have 10.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?SELL0.25$31.00
09-17 01:32Will Jefferies (JEF) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.3255552028$41.02
09-17 01:04Will Nico Collins have 8.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?SELL0.4168152866$52.35
09-16 19:05Will Celta Vigo reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal?SELL0.434$43.40
09-16 18:29Will Austria win 2026-27 Nations League Group B3?BUY0.6537036077$176.49
09-16 18:22Will Germany win 2026-27 Nations League Group A2?BUY0.3895229934$1.4k
09-16 18:06Will Bulgaria win 2026-27 Nations League Group C4?BUY0.1263303595$115.55
09-16 17:49Will Slovakia win 2026-27 Nations League Group C3?BUY0.25$5.00
09-16 17:48Will Moldova win 2026-27 Nations League Group C3?BUY0.7367654987$273.34
09-16 17:37Will Ukraine win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?BUY0.61$12.20
09-16 17:36Will Georgia win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?BUY0.16$112.00
09-16 17:17Will Nigeria win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group L?BUY0.25$5.00
09-16 16:23Will the Vikings win the season series against the Packers during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?BUY0.6$10.84
09-16 16:23Will the season series between the Packers and Vikings end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?BUY0.5612121212$185.20
09-16 14:39Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,053,000 and $1,089,000 on September 30?BUY0.92$0.50