0xf9bd088b58ec58c492b3f054a6ed909fab9e57f5
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $49.95
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on November 3? · No | 0.630 | 0.520 | $10.23 | −$2.16 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 4°C on November 3? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.235 | $9.40 | −$4.60 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on November 3? · No | 0.780 | 0.715 | $7.77 | −$0.71 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 5°C on November 3? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.375 | $7.50 | −$0.10 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on November 3? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.365 | $7.30 | −$0.30 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on November 3? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.330 | $6.60 | −$0.40 |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on November 3? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.210 | $1.16 | −$0.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.20at 0.440Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on November 3?
- +$0.00at 0.080Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on November 3?
- +$-0.10at 0.600Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on November 3?
- +$-0.20at 0.890Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on November 3?
- +$-0.20at 0.640Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on November 3?