0xF9B8eb07C58BeB998F7BB21A31B9D4B0Cc7C52D6-1763132023082
0xf9b8eb07c58beb998f7bb21a31b9d4b0cc7c52d6
- Realised P&L
- $-407.37
- Volume
- $23.0k
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $23.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.178 | $14.45 | −$2.55 |
| Will Anthropic IPO on November 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.027 | $8.72 | −$16.28 |
| Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-25? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 4 Real Madrid CF? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will "Clayface" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.14 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.274 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.00 |
| Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 3 Real Madrid CF? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.186 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$82.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.85at 0.319Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?
- +$39.94at 0.341Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?
- +$36.10at 0.364Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?
- +$22.23at 0.407Will England win on 2026-07-05?
- +$20.12at 0.171Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 14:07 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.2099999999 | $17.00 |
| 10-28 14:06 | Will Anthropic IPO on November 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.0773809522 | $25.00 |
| 10-28 14:02 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.038 | $9.27 |
| 10-28 14:02 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | SELL | 0.003612216 | $4.52 |
| 10-28 14:01 | Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SELL | 0.12 | $13.85 |
| 10-28 14:01 | Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-11-03? | SELL | 0.09 | $3.60 |
| 10-28 14:00 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2027 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.16 | $8.42 |
| 10-28 13:59 | Will Jude Bellingham win the 2027 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.08 | $3.26 |
| 10-27 14:52 | Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-11-03? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.00 |
| 10-27 13:35 | Will Jude Bellingham win the 2027 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1226415087 | $5.00 |
| 10-27 13:34 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2027 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1899999998 | $10.00 |
| 10-26 22:19 | Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1735776251 | $10.00 |
| 10-26 22:19 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.2739999988 | $19.00 |
| 10-26 22:15 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1862112825 | $25.00 |
| 10-26 21:59 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $75.07 |