eserdmfk
0xf982c1d3077a410d6d45ad43b80f842c899498ed
- Realised P&L
- $-46.33
- Volume
- $3.5k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $202.95
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.768 | $82.23 | +$12.68 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.327 | 0.973 | $78.63 | +$52.17 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? · No | 0.920 | 0.972 | $19.44 | +$1.04 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? · No | 0.310 | 0.232 | $13.89 | −$4.71 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.025 | $4.08 | −$23.12 |
| Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.062 | $2.54 | −$8.53 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.032 | $2.14 | −$20.30 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? · No | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$62.40 |
| Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? · No | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.32 |
| Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? · Yes | 0.573 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$66.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$53.23at 0.502Fed rate hike in 2026?
- +$32.86at 0.585Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$15.24at 0.769Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$13.68at 0.820Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- +$2.11at 0.876Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 06:34 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.87 | $14.79 |
| 09-18 15:11 | Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.27 | $11.07 |
| 08-18 14:21 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $52.43 |
| 07-25 01:39 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $22.44 |
| 06-20 14:02 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.76 | $50.16 |
| 05-16 08:24 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | BUY | 0.31 | $18.60 |
| 04-30 14:41 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $18.40 |
| 04-09 13:29 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.3272065553 | $26.45 |
| 03-23 14:47 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.82 | $62.32 |
| 03-17 13:28 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $27.20 |
| 03-15 12:04 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | BUY | 0.65 | $69.55 |
| 03-15 11:49 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.617 | $633.66 |
| 03-15 11:44 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.48 | $62.40 |
| 03-13 15:07 | Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | SELL | 0.6808461053 | $64.68 |
| 03-07 02:42 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.585 | $600.79 |