PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

eserdmfk

0xf982c1d3077a410d6d45ad43b80f842c899498ed

Realised P&L
$-46.33
Volume
$3.5k
Markets traded
17
Open portfolio
$202.95

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded17
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration45.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample9 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? · Yes0.6500.768$82.23+$12.68
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.3270.973$78.63+$52.17
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? · No0.9200.972$19.44+$1.04
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? · No0.3100.232$13.89−$4.71
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes0.1700.025$4.08−$23.12
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? · Yes0.2700.062$2.54−$8.53
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes0.3300.032$2.14−$20.30
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? · No0.4800.000$0.00−$62.40
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? · No0.1400.000$0.00−$19.32
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? · Yes0.5730.000$0.00−$66.47

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-18 06:34Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.87$14.79
09-18 15:11Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027?BUY0.27$11.07
08-18 14:21Fed rate hike in 2026?BUY0.49$52.43
07-25 01:39Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.33$22.44
06-20 14:02Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.76$50.16
05-16 08:24OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?BUY0.31$18.60
04-30 14:41New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? BUY0.92$18.40
04-09 13:29Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY0.3272065553$26.45
03-23 14:47Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?BUY0.82$62.32
03-17 13:28Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?BUY0.17$27.20
03-15 12:04OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?BUY0.65$69.55
03-15 11:49Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.617$633.66
03-15 11:44MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?BUY0.48$62.40
03-13 15:07Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?SELL0.6808461053$64.68
03-07 02:42Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.585$600.79