vinylether
0xf957bdf5a2ce60e0e60965efb3159e6f9ad1b37b
- Realised P&L
- $92.34
- Volume
- $39.9k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $0.30
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.003 | $0.30 | −$1.70 |
| Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.90 |
| Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.29 |
| Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$122.19at 0.003Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$9.80at 0.510Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- +$1.00at 0.520Anthropic IPO before 2027?
- +$0.40at 0.870Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
- +$0.30at 0.860China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-03 18:31 | Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 05-03 18:31 | Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 05-03 18:28 | Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.50 |
| 05-03 18:27 | Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $8.00 |
| 04-26 15:16 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.59 |
| 04-26 15:14 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.34 |
| 04-26 07:56 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.0037847293 | $2.66 |
| 04-25 02:12 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.25 |
| 04-24 07:28 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.39 |
| 04-24 07:25 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $5.84 |
| 04-24 04:39 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.89 | $8.90 |
| 04-24 03:23 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $1.16 |
| 04-24 03:17 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.0204542133 | $61.36 |
| 04-21 02:14 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.028635064 | $4.89 |
| 04-21 02:08 | Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.0153128138 | $10.00 |