0xF939f485B718fFA12837A218da9aAF368174eE21-1760442077995
0xf939f485b718ffa12837a218da9aaf368174ee21
- Realised P&L
- $271.52
- Volume
- $16.3k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.789 | 0.977 | $719.63 | +$138.51 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.939 | 0.982 | $490.75 | +$21.35 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.931 | 0.994 | $49.70 | +$3.15 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.990 | $49.50 | +$3.00 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.939 | 0.988 | $16.81 | +$0.83 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$168.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$185.25at 0.832Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?
- +$165.70at 0.385Will the government shutdown end November 13?
- +$89.35at 0.851Will the government shutdown end November 12?
- +$55.83at 0.727Will CZ return to Binance by December 31?
- +$48.66at 0.014Xi Jinping out by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 12:48 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $70.12 |
| 06-01 17:12 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.20 |
| 06-01 17:02 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 06-01 16:59 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.505 | $50.50 |
| 03-26 14:59 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $24.92 |
| 03-22 15:39 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | BUY | 0.931 | $9.31 |
| 03-17 04:36 | Spurs vs. Clippers | BUY | 0.98 | $1.00 |
| 03-10 15:48 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | BUY | 0.647 | $3.24 |
| 03-10 15:47 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | BUY | 0.652 | $3.26 |
| 03-10 14:15 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | BUY | 0.398 | $7.92 |
| 03-10 13:57 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $4.81 |
| 02-28 07:04 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.0219999979 | $10.00 |
| 02-27 13:45 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $3.50 |
| 01-06 01:44 | Xi Jinping out by June 30? | SELL | 0.022 | $0.30 |
| 12-31 02:10 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.996 | $66.05 |