qbug
0xf939d62dde4db0aeb7630ed05ee167ca5120aded
- Realised P&L
- $-206.85
- Volume
- $7.4k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $745.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$92.70at 0.210DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?
- +$82.50at 0.220Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$34.41at 0.250Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$20.00at 0.100Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$19.38at 0.031Moonshot matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 07:41 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.66 |
| 09-17 07:01 | ByteDance matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $45.00 |
| 09-16 11:06 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $1.00 |
| 04-16 11:31 | Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.981 | $29.43 |
| 04-05 13:50 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.8999997857 | $3.36 |
| 03-30 06:03 | DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.82 |
| 03-25 13:55 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.896 | $17.92 |
| 03-25 13:54 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.896 | $26.88 |
| 03-25 13:29 | DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | SELL | 0.39 | $5.85 |
| 03-25 13:11 | DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? | BUY | 0.109 | $2.18 |
| 03-25 13:09 | DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | BUY | 0.61 | $11.04 |
| 03-25 13:07 | DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | BUY | 0.6 | $4.24 |