B1B2
0xf93002db9d13e3307f71b74e0cb3083f4766ac87
- Realised P&L
- $-230.09
- Volume
- $15.5k
- Markets traded
- 107
- Open portfolio
- $155.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded107
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.023 | $150.88 | −$191.93 |
| Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.056 | $5.04 | −$1.71 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.17at 0.060Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?
- +$2.66at 0.530Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?
- +$1.30at 0.030Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February?
- +$1.24at 0.359Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?
- +$1.10at 0.301Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 06:20 | Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31? | BUY | 0.075 | $6.75 |
| 10-11 06:08 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.0365899143 | $76.84 |
| 08-15 08:02 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.0535343667 | $32.12 |
| 08-11 09:40 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.0592066067 | $88.81 |
| 07-26 18:37 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.0838727279 | $114.07 |
| 06-20 16:07 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | SELL | 0.65 | $1.01 |
| 06-20 16:07 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 09:20 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 09:14 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 12:52 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 06-18 12:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 12:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET | BUY | 0.0299999712 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 12:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 12:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 12:44 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | SELL | 0.76 | $1.00 |