sh111
0xf807bf2f9de09f9562009575ca77d67cafe9c5dc
- Realised P&L
- $-22.7k
- Volume
- $1.07M
- Markets traded
- 297
- Open portfolio
- $7.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded297
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.924 | 0.959 | $5.8k | +$207.74 |
| Clemson vs. California · Clemson | 0.570 | 0.565 | $847.50 | −$7.50 |
| Spread: Indiana (-21.5) · Northwestern | 0.540 | 0.410 | $574.00 | −$182.00 |
| Spread: Indiana (-16.5) · Northwestern | 0.560 | 0.240 | $360.00 | −$480.00 |
| Spread: Navy (-2.5) · Navy | 0.600 | 0.140 | $210.00 | −$690.00 |
| Spread: Navy (-6.5) · Navy | 0.459 | 0.030 | $15.00 | −$214.56 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.085 | $0.09 | −$0.13 |
| Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.022 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.007 | $0.01 | −$0.08 |
| Spread: Utah (-21.5) · Arkansas | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$490.00 |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5 · Over | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$420.00 |
| Will Leeds United FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$290.00 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20? · No | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$600.00 |
| Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 44.5 · Under | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · No | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.525US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$1.6kat 0.364Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$1.5kat 0.306Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
- +$1.4kat 0.032Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$1.4kat 0.142Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 01:49 | Clemson vs. California | BUY | 0.57 | $855.00 |
| 09-26 01:06 | Spread: Indiana (-16.5) | BUY | 0.56 | $840.00 |
| 09-25 23:56 | Spread: Navy (-6.5) | BUY | 0.45912 | $229.56 |
| 09-25 23:52 | Spread: Navy (-2.5) | BUY | 0.6 | $900.00 |
| 09-25 03:58 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9243779667 | $5.5k |
| 09-25 03:11 | Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 49.5 | BUY | 0.41 | $205.00 |
| 09-25 00:13 | Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 44.5 | BUY | 0.57 | $1.4k |
| 09-23 01:54 | Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5380445609 | $269.02 |
| 09-23 00:35 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 | BUY | 0.56 | $279.99 |
| 09-22 02:49 | Giants vs. Rams: O/U 39.5 | SELL | 0.56 | $616.00 |
| 09-22 01:45 | Spread: Rams (-6.5) | BUY | 0.86 | $233.92 |
| 09-22 01:41 | Giants vs. Rams: O/U 39.5 | BUY | 0.5597727273 | $615.75 |
| 09-22 01:31 | Spread: Rams (-4.5) | SELL | 0.85 | $850.00 |
| 09-21 10:49 | Spread: Rams (-4.5) | BUY | 0.59 | $590.00 |
| 09-21 03:53 | Colts vs. Chiefs | SELL | 0.9675 | $967.50 |