0xf7c2c8f9167570a0A1e17E7C55abC0210528FecE-1779487349658
0xf7c2c8f9167570a0a1e17e7c55abc0210528fece
- Realised P&L
- $96.49
- Volume
- $507.69
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $112.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar19.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.661 | 0.715 | $32.45 | +$2.45 |
| Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections? · Yes | 0.584 | 0.800 | $27.40 | +$7.40 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes | 0.723 | 0.765 | $21.15 | +$1.15 |
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.850 | $13.93 | +$3.93 |
| Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.635 | $10.41 | +$0.41 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.445 | $7.29 | −$2.70 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes | 0.718 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.43at 0.597Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$23.37at 0.565France vs. Morocco: France O/U 1.5
- +$20.88at 0.595Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
- +$12.56at 0.447Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
- +$9.50at 0.657Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 21:27 | Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections? | BUY | 0.5599999462 | $10.00 |
| 08-10 06:36 | Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.6899999952 | $20.00 |
| 08-10 06:35 | Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections? | BUY | 0.6099999994 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 06:46 | Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | BUY | 0.6392680317 | $20.00 |
| 07-29 18:39 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7233380476 | $20.00 |
| 07-29 18:38 | Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.6099999994 | $10.00 |
| 07-22 08:23 | Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? | BUY | 0.6099999994 | $10.00 |
| 07-21 17:51 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.717999939 | $10.00 |
| 07-21 17:50 | Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.6099999994 | $10.00 |
| 07-21 17:49 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6099999994 | $10.00 |
| 07-19 19:04 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5849999984 | $50.00 |
| 07-10 19:11 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | BUY | 0.5824999942 | $30.00 |
| 07-09 20:17 | France vs. Morocco: France O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.5579134031 | $30.00 |
| 07-07 16:48 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.649999991 | $18.00 |
| 07-07 16:41 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.4399999894 | $10.00 |