0xf7b2d733cac42c7cec539da7fe0aad82da86888a
0xf7b2d733cac42c7cec539da7fe0aad82da86888a
- Realised P&L
- $-2.15
- Volume
- $266.80
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $8.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.945 | $2.89 | +$1.36 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.940 | $2.38 | +$0.38 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.715 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $154 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.655 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.140 | $0.58 | −$0.42 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.257 | 0.091 | $0.35 | −$0.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.92at 0.259Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$2.70at 0.432Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$2.11at 0.492Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
- +$1.93at 0.460Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 10:49 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 10:49 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $154 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 12:22 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2569999725 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 04:22 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 20:03 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 12:01 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999345 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 02:58 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 16:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 07:54 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 23:08 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 23:41 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 00:39 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4799999151 | $1.81 |
| 09-07 16:16 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.74 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 07:40 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 01:42 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |