0xf7a5b1c66489e48b2236e566ee3405b8ec5e49bb
0xf7a5b1c66489e48b2236e566ee3405b8ec5e49bb
- Realised P&L
- $5.08
- Volume
- $34.46
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $7.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar14.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.845 | $1.88 | +$0.88 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.660 | $1.78 | +$0.78 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? · No | 0.640 | 0.986 | $1.54 | +$0.54 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.850 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.505 | $0.66 | −$0.34 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.150 | $0.58 | −$0.42 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.96at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$2.81at 0.270Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?
- +$0.76at 0.572Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$0.37at 0.730Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?
- +$0.24at 0.808Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 22:16 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 22:15 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 11:51 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 23:32 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 11:05 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 11:05 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 03:00 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 13:33 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 05:09 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 20:20 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 12:06 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 20:42 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 20:41 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 12:40 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |