DerDon
0xf797d4d1c038d1eb0593edae0e66bf8e4b2e0bf2
- Realised P&L
- $104.9k
- Volume
- $13.00M
- Markets traded
- 3,879
- Open portfolio
- $115.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,879
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.0kat 0.167Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$8.9kat 0.084Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?
- +$5.6kat 0.469US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
- +$4.6kat 0.081Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31?
- +$4.1kat 0.442US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 09:20 | Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $179.22 |
| 09-17 09:17 | Will AfD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | BUY | 0.9627831178 | $502.43 |
| 09-17 01:40 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.3352380952 | $98.56 |
| 09-17 01:40 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $36.60 |
| 09-17 01:37 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BUY | 0.94 | $182.38 |
| 09-16 17:56 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BUY | 0.94 | $18.80 |
| 09-16 17:54 | Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? | BUY | 0.47 | $8.88 |
| 09-16 17:52 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.43 | $7.78 |
| 09-16 11:05 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $59.00 |
| 09-16 10:56 | Will SPD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 0-2%? | BUY | 0.1548202031 | $45.12 |
| 09-16 10:43 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.38 | $189.08 |
| 09-16 01:07 | Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? | BUY | 0.092 | $3.13 |
| 09-16 00:42 | Will Linke win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.13 | $44.35 |
| 09-15 10:54 | Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | BUY | 0.7427451855 | $1.2k |
| 09-15 09:10 | Will Trump say "Crime" or "Criminal" 15+ times during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.52 | $151.42 |