DerDon
0xf797d4d1c038d1eb0593edae0e66bf8e4b2e0bf2
- Realised P&L
- $88.1k
- Volume
- $11.96M
- Markets traded
- 3,513
- Open portfolio
- $62.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,513
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration43.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.0kat 0.167Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$8.9kat 0.084Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?
- +$5.6kat 0.469US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
- +$4.6kat 0.081Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31?
- +$4.1kat 0.442US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 23:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.42 | $873.70 |
| 08-02 15:38 | Nothing Ever Happens: August | BUY | 0.14 | $1.01 |
| 08-02 15:25 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.13 | $5.22 |
| 08-02 14:44 | Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $54.78 |
| 07-31 08:25 | Will Spotify say "World Cup" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.84 | $399.34 |
| 07-31 01:32 | Will Palantir say "Enterprise" 5+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.948 | $568.80 |
| 07-31 01:31 | Will Palantir say "Government" 10+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9517019421 | $447.40 |
| 07-31 01:25 | Will Palantir say "Healthcare" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.56 | $33.60 |
| 07-31 01:24 | Will Palantir say "Leverage" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.83 | $41.49 |
| 07-31 01:17 | Will Palantir say "Contract" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.97 | $194.00 |
| 07-31 01:16 | Will Palantir say "International" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.96 | $192.00 |
| 07-31 00:55 | Trump approval Up or Down this week? | BUY | 0.95 | $47.50 |
| 07-31 00:52 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? | BUY | 0.89 | $71.28 |
| 07-31 00:51 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $207.90 |
| 07-31 00:00 | Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.59 | $12.39 |