simak
0xf792874d2bd4e6f80e13dafccf49948a9e1c1682
- Realised P&L
- $-3.4k
- Volume
- $106.8k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.280[Single Market] Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$758.51at 0.581Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$588.21at 0.496Trump and Biden both win nomination?
- +$407.06at 0.843Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$371.46at 0.913Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 16:03 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.21 | $69.93 |
| 09-03 12:22 | Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 12:21 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.24 | $79.92 |
| 09-01 22:43 | Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 09-01 22:32 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8289188641 | $408.66 |
| 09-01 22:31 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.89 | $592.74 |
| 09-01 22:30 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.996 | $0.44 |
| 09-01 22:30 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.996 | $138.44 |
| 09-01 22:22 | Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $89.10 |
| 09-01 22:20 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $498.08 |
| 09-01 22:19 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.98 | $2.9k |
| 03-26 14:18 | FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualification Longshots Parlay | BUY | 0.74 | $192.40 |
| 01-07 22:26 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $160.19 |
| 01-03 12:09 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.57 | $49.02 |
| 01-03 12:08 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.57 | $57.00 |