0xf768397365a54a38878b60F5cb3Ac48B75c98C02-1758571448546
0xf768397365a54a38878b60f5cb3ac48b75c98c02
- Realised P&L
- $-6.31
- Volume
- $739.35
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $77.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.61at 0.360Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$2.10at 0.390Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November?
- +$1.83at 0.359Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.59at 0.640Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?
- +$0.50at 0.120Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23 09:56 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.99 | $1.07 |
| 10-23 09:55 | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.76 | $1.06 |
| 10-23 09:50 | Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | SELL | 0.62 | $2.10 |
| 09-14 22:29 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0739999973 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 18:04 | Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 17:59 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 17:58 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.962 | $2.40 |
| 08-25 22:24 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 08-15 15:23 | Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 08-15 15:22 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.579999826 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 21:25 | Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3699998631 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 21:17 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.66 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 21:16 | Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1129999064 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 21:14 | Will Sébastien Lecornu advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0544553951 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 21:04 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 31? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |