cataction
0xf74de633b4fc74db6a8e82c367d4e789dc08280c
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $50.6k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $880.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.055 | $605.00 | +$5.03 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.275 | $275.00 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-5.00at 0.001Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$-10.15at 0.003MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$-267.61at 0.047Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
- +$-995.61at 0.055Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?
- +$-999.00at 0.830Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-03 09:49 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $5.00 |
| 01-02 17:49 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 10-09 13:41 | Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? | BUY | 0.8299999996 | $999.00 |
| 09-27 18:51 | Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025? | BUY | 0.051719254 | $251.83 |
| 09-11 17:36 | Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025? | BUY | 0.0599798639 | $499.14 |